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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

End of Year Results

Today being December 31, 2014 this ends the year for the 2014 stock market.  I have to say I was right on the money with my prediction.  I stated last year that the DOW would close today between 17,500.00 and 17,800.00 the actual closing price today was 17,823.07, I don't think I could have predicted that much closer when I said that a year ago.  So what is my prediction for 2015 for the DOW?  I am going in with 19,800.00 to 20,500.00.  I think you are going to see much the same in 2014 as you have in 2015.  Slower growth, mutual funds out performing most individual stocks and some wonderful splits to be watching out for when some individual stocks hit their marks.  We have several that we need to be watching closely to split or increase dividends in the upcoming year.  There are still some good buys out there for 2015 and soon the market will take off again after things have settled down after the new year stuff. 

I hope you had a good year in your personal portfolio and that you have found in reading my Blog that you have gained some good information.  Have a safe New Year and look forward to 2015!

Gus S.

(revised end of year predictions for 2015.  01/01/2015 gfs)



Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Should You Buy Apple Stock?

Back in April of this year (2014) I was preaching in my Blog for everyone to buy Apple (AAPL) stock.  A nice 7:1 split was on the horizon and I told those that read my Blog to BUY BUY BUY!!!  Those of you that did have seen an extremely nice gain of over 40% for the year.  Apple is probably the most powerful company in the world and literally has the cash to buy anything it wants.  If Apple decides it wants to gobble up a company or acquisition it, it can and will.  No other company is safe.  If they want you they will take you if you are not willing to sell.

This morning I read and listened to an article and video about Apple on the Yahoo Finance page.  I suggest you do the same.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/should-you-buy-apple-stock-175927155.html

So now you may ask if I agree with this information.  Kind of, is my answer.  Apple is currently trading at $113.91.  In the article Jeff Macke suggest not to buy Apple unless it were to fall to $100.00 per share or less.  I will agree with that for the investor who is going to buy just few shares.  But if you are an investor that can afford a lot of shares then I say go for it.  But for the majority of my readers have missed the good ship lollipop.  Now you will have to wait on your next good opportunity with Apple or look at other stocks and companies.  In my last Blog posting I suggested several stocks and mutual funds to look at for your portfolio.  Apple was one of those.  But after more research and thinking about it I have to pull back on my prior Apple advise a little for now until there is a correction for them or another split for the average investor.  But when you hear Apple is going to split again, I am going to suggest to buy all the shares you can reasonably afford unless some drastically tragic things go wrong with the company.  

Gus S.


Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Finally They See The Light!

Finally They See The Light.  Here is an article that just came out on Yahoo Financial page.  It is saying the same thing I have been telling you for the last two to three weeks in my blog regarding oil prices and the energy sector of the stock market.  It is time to move on as they say in the article.  And they should have been moving on three weeks ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-stocks-separate-ways-003453944--finance.html

Also, I failed to bring to your attention something that I think is going to be a good stock split and I think it is too late to get in on the split now.  But if you were watching, doing your homework and using the formulas I have given you, you should have found Gentex Corp. (GNTX) is going to split and it fits the criteria that I have given you several times in my blog.  I hope you got in.  I do not think you are going to see a huge increase in price right after the split.  But they are doing a buy back and increasing dividends.  I think in the long haul you will be satisfied if you found it and jumped on board.

Also yesterday, I was notified via email by Scottrade that Verizon Wireless (VZ) to those share holders with 99 shares or less.  The price of the buy back has not been confirmed as of yet.  Those shareholders of record with less than 99 shares need to investigate this with their financial advisor.  For me personally, I do have this stock in my portfolio, but it was not going to be a good deal for me based on the limited information provided.  However, I advise buying VZ if you are needing a telecommunications stock in your portfolio.  After a buy back stocks "tend" to rise in price in the market.  Also, this stock is a recommended stock on my list of top stocks to invest in.  It does pay a decent dividend.  I think you are most likely looking at a winning situation for the future with a purchase of VZ if done prior to January 6, 2015.

Gus S.


Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

The Yoyo Syndrome

What you have been seeing the last couple of weeks is what you will continue to see until oil prices rebound.  For the American oil man if the price of oil is not above $65 per barrel they are operating in the red.  With oil currently selling at $60 per barrel gas, oil and energy stocks take a beating.  Not until OPEC cuts back on production and the price per barrel raises the fluctuations in the stock market will continue on this same path and the market going up and down like a Yoyo.  Why?  Because their are a few different points of view.  Let me explain.

My personal belief is that overall we have a recovering economy.  We are not headed for another recession so long as there is not a panic over the oil situation and people start getting stupid.  You know sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.  Those that have all their eggs in one basket in the energy sector are currently losing.  But why punish all the other sectors of the market because we currently have one bad apple in the barrel. (Pardon the pun).  That is my point.  The other sectors are doing fine and making money.  Why should they and us be punished in the stock market due to the one bad apple.  Let energy take the hit and leave everyone else alone.  Retail is up, consumer goods are up, healthcare is up etc., so why allow the energy sector to poison these holdings in market and our portfolio's.  That is a similar view of many of the experts.  But you always have the Nervous Nelly's that thing the sky is falls when everything is not 100% perfect.  I have Energy stocks like ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell.  Two big oil companies make up a small part of my portfolio.  Okay I am losing a little money on them right now.  But they pay a good dividend and it is not a total loss.  The rest of my portfolio is looking good and I am carrying positive gain percentages in my portfolio for the year and the market at year end is going to be right about where I predicted for us that it would be at the end of 2014.  So really I cannot complain and you should not either if you have your entire portfolio weighted and balanced as I have been trying to teach you.  If your portfolio increases between 8% to 12% this year I think you should consider yourself as doing well.  More than 12% you did excellent.  Below 8%, perhaps you need to reevaluate your portfolio and tweak a few things.

Do remember when building your portfolio some basic rules.  Good foundation in your portfolio with a couple of good Balanced Mutual Funds.  Only put 4 and 5 Star mutual funds in your portfolio.  Make sure your mutual funds are diverse.  Some bond funds, some Large Cap, Midcap and Smallcap funds.  Some Foreign Market Funds as well...but be careful.  I personally never like Foreign Market/International Mutual Funds and I have done very well in my portfolio without them.  I am sure your financial advisor will differ from my opinion.  No more than 40% of your holding in Individual Stocks.  Use good quality stocks that pay dividends...any dividend, not necessarily the highest dividend.  And make sure to weight your Individual Stock holdings across the various market sectors.

See you guys next year.  Off now for vacation to see my relatives for the holidays.  Each and everyone of my readers, please have a happy and safe holiday season!


Gus S.


Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

And The Bottom Drops Out

On Friday, December we see the bottom drop out of the down as it tumbles 315 for a 1.79% loss.  OUCH!!!  Yes, that was a sting in the pants.  But honestly the market is still significantly up overall for the year and is currently hovering at the point I said it would at the year end of 2014 when I made my predication back in December of 2013.  As we know the Energy Sector of the market which includes Crude prices is the cause of the downward spiral.  But I think investors and Wall Street are beginning to see the light.  One very small sector of the market should not cast a bad shadow on the entire market.

What I would like to do today is take a look at some good things in the market.  Highlights to consider and show and tell you why.  So lets look at some nice investments that should be good for you in 2015 and how the market should look come this time next year.

I think you will be seeing much the same throughout the year in 2015.  Until good quality higher level jobs are created and less minimum wage jobs in the food and retail industry we are going to find ourselves in a slower growing rut.  Mutual Funds are going to be a little more safe and stable.  There will be many peaks and valleys in 2015 as there have been in 2014 in the market.  I am going to suggest that you look at the time next year that the market will be somewhere in the 18,800 range.  Anything better is a blessing.  I don't see anything possible other than the kind of growth we are currently seeing until most likely September or October of 2016.  Not until after the Presidential elections can 2016 be safely predicted, but out best hope in the market is 2016.

So lets look at some stocks and mutual funds together and see if I can help find some good additions to your portfolio.  The first one we are going to talk about is PRHSX.  This mutual fund takes a licking and keeps on ticking.  Morning Star rating of 5 and the best Health Sciences Mutual Funds out there in my opinion.  I love this fund as a retired healthcare profession because I know healthcare is here to stay forever.  As long as there are sick people there will be healthcare.  I like this fund and it has had a great run over the years and would be a good addition to anyone's portfolio.  What about FCGAX?  A good Large Growth Fund with a Morning Star rating of 4.  Looks good and is great for the newer investors.  It has no minimum balance to get started and personally I love Franklin Templeton funds.  How about ABALX as a nice Balanced Fund.  Good to start a base in your portfolio with new investors. PEMGX is a good Principle Midcap Fund for a portfolio that has held its own in 2014.  It has a nice Morning Star Rating of 5.  I personally own this fund and it has been a very good investment for me over the years.  For those that are older and getting ready to retire or who have retired we must look for you at FKINX.  I have mentioned this fund before.  It is snatching up about 6% per year and pays a nice monthly dividend if you are looking for extra income in your retirement.  Again, this happens to be in my personal portfolio, has a Morning Star Rating of 5 and is doing great for me.  And the last one we will talk about is VBINX.  A Morning Star Rating of 4 this Balanced Fund is a good base mutual fund in your portfolio.  It has stood the challenges of 2014 and is a Vanguard winner.  I like this one for a new investor getting started in building there base in their portfolio or an older investor pulling back their risk a little.  This is a winner.

What about Individual Stocks for the future looking ahead in the market and into 2015?  First, with individual stocks I remind you there is more risk and your should have your sectors balanced and they should not make up any more than 40% of your portfolio.  Less for new beginning investors and older investors that need to be looking toward retirement and start lowering their risk in the market.  So first I am going to look at BABA.  A hot rocket that hit the market as an IPO earlier this year.  China is bigger and better in the market than America now and we have to give them a look.  I think this stock deserves that look and would be a good addition to your portfolio in future.  I like PZZA for the future.  Papa John is not my favorite pizza, but he knows how to sell it and make us money in the stock market.  It did split in the past year and I think it is time you pay him a visit...and I'm not talking buying a pizza, but lots of his stock.  We must look at GD.  General Dynamics is poised for a good future.  Military contracts, Aerospace, surveillance equipment, naval control systems. I think you will be hard pressed to find better potential right now for steady growth and good dividends than General Dynamics. AAPL, probably one of my biggest successes in personally buying and sharing the information with you in my blog.  And there is still room for growth.  I think we are going to continue to see a lot of technology in the upcoming years.  The technology era is not over yet.  As far as technology stocks go, I think this is about as good as any you can find.  I see more growth in the future.  KMI is an Energy Sector stock that I think has a good chance of holding it's own until OPEC can get its shit together and quit bickering between themselves.  Pays a nice dividend and I think you will find to be a good addition with time in your portfolio.  CAT has long been at the top of the list of good stocks from a quality company.  That is not changing.  With over a 7% profit it is doing fine even though right now it has been hurt in the market with decreasing values on it's stock.  That is why it makes CAT a good stock to buy, buy, buy.  The price is down, profits are good, and it pays a nice dividend.  Thus I have to recommend it as a good buy.  We must look at some Healthcare Sector stocks.  Most have done well with lighter losses than some other sectors.  Lets first take a look at LLY.  Eli Lily has long been a reputable company in the healthcare sector with making various pharmaceuticals.  It has a good chart, good growth, good profit margin and pays a nice dividend.  NVS also has to be looked at in this sector.  I find it a little more volatile in the market, but overall has a better profit margin than LLY and a very nice dividend. CVS I feel is a little safer in the big 3 of Pharmacies.  Walgreen (WAG) had a big stumble a year or so ago and is in recovery mode while Rite Aide (RAD) had a good run, fell down and has yet to recover. (I am buying RAD right now, fyi)  CVS pays a nice little dividend.  I like the growth chart.  I like the fact they took cigarettes out of their stores and took a stand on that issue.  But I do wish that profit margin was a little greater.

I do hope you find this information useful.

Gus S.

Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Should I Buy Gas and Oil Stocks

We have seen the DOW and overall market take a pounding this week.  The excuse being crude oil and the confusion among the OPEC members.  Energy stocks are yet a small sector in the big picture.  If frustrates me to see things like are going on right now.  Just to clarify for everyone "The Sky Is Not Falling", so don't be a Chicken Little.  I would not even call what is happening a correction or pull back in the market.  It's simply called unwarranted fear.  But who ultimately benefits from this unwarranted fear?  We the investors do.  Here is why.

First there is no good reason that all sectors of the market are down.  Crude and Gas are but a small drop in a big pond.  If you think that the days of $4.00 gas at the pump are gone forever you are sadly mistaken.  When OPEC gets tired of playing with everyone, is done beating up on the little guys that can't afford to keep selling their oil at $60.00 per barrel and decide they decide it is time to double the price and make money again things will all go back to the way they were prior to OPEC's price decrease for crude.  When it does, you should have positioned yourself to reap the benefits.  And that time to get into position is now!

Hopefully you have a little extra money stashed in your holding account for stock purchases, because that is exactly what I am recommending.  Everything you buy does not have to be oil, gas and energy stocks.  But if you do not have these types of stocks in your portfolio like you should I suggest now is a good time to add some.  So you say Gus, help us out here.  What do you recommend.  Well my personal top choices are Exxon (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), and Kinder Morgan (KMI).  But also look at other sectors of the market if your portfolio looks well established and weighted with Energy Stocks.  I am seeing a lot of good buys out there right now in other sectors of the market, things such as (NVS), (EV), (GD), (BFB), (GE) and (F) just to name a few.

Now is money making time.  Take advantage by adding some good quality stocks to your portfolio.  Now is the time to BUY, BUY, BUY and not to SELL, SELL, SELL.

Gus S.

Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.