Individual Stocks: Dividend versus Non-Dividend.

Historically time and time again Dividend Stocks have provided investors with bigger over all gains than Non-Dividend individual stocks.

Is this true?  Well yes it is if you are a long term investor that is going to buy such an individual and sit on it in your portfolio for years.  However, people that invest like me who are more interested in the short term than the long term, this may not be true. 

What is the big difference between a short term and long term investor?  The biggest difference if that you purchase a stock for the long term that pays out good dividends that you reinvest over the course of years and years.  You hit difference price points as the stock goes up or as it declines.  Thus adding more and more shares to your initial holding.  You may also be adding money and buying more of this stock you chose on a systematic basis like one a month to hit different price points and build on the number of shares you own.  With a short term investor such as myself (not day traders), dividends are of little benefit or consequence.  They are making strategic moves in the market for short term gains and benefits.  Short term investors study market trends, look for under valued stocks, and opportunities for short term gains usually 10 to 30 percent.  Sell and take their profits and look for the next opportunity or two to reinvest their money.  In the past 4 months alone I am up over 12% in my individual short term portfolio holdings.

So to break this down in a little more basic terms as to where Dividend Stocks are better than Non-Dividend stocks it really depends on what kind of investor you are and the length of time you are going to hold that stock in your portfolio.  Long Term, good paying dividend stocks with some growth potential.  Short Term, it really does not matter.  Your looking for a quick growth cycle, take your money and run to the next opportunity.

Also remember, you should be very knowledgeable about the stock market, have done your research on a stock and be willing to invest money that you could possibly lose without placing yourself into a financial whole you cannot dig out of.  For the new investor in Individual Stocks I suggest looking for a Stock Investor Group in your city or area.  They are a great way to get your feet wet and learn more about Individual Stock investing.

Gus S.


Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Where does the Stock Market go now?

This past week we have seen some changes in the markets due to the looming announcements by the Fed regarding how much they were going to cut the stimulus package of buying bonds to help in the support of the stock market and to keep interest rates down.  After their announcement we found out they were not going to make as big of cuts as expected.  After being in a flat pattern much of the week, after the announcement the markets began to rise again and the Dow hitting another record high.

Today there was more good news for the market as consumer spending for the month of November 2013 was up 0.5% causing the market to open on a high note.  The market is being supported in part due to your Internet Stocks such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc..  My opinion remains that some such Internet Stocks are way over valued and playing off their names and investors fantasy's.  Twitter remains operating in the red.  A company that losses money instead of makes money with a stock price it is showing in my opinion is a recipe for a disaster.  If you absolutely must have an internet stock in your portfolio Facebook is the better bet.  At least they operate in the black and have a genius for an owner of the company that knows how to make money.

As I sit back and reflect on the current market and our economy of the past where do I think the current market will go?  The simple answer is UP.  I see this continued rise through the spring of the year and into the summer of 2014.  Yes, as the Federal Reserves continues to cut back on the stimulus package interest rates will rise slowly, which really is not a bad thing.  Remember back the way it use to be in the 70's, 80's and 90's.  Interest rates were anywhere from 6 to 10 percent on a mortgage rate when buying a new house.  Interest rates when buying a car were about the same, perhaps slightly less.  Interest rates were a product of competition by the lenders as to who gave the best rates, not as a product of a government stimulus package.  The government survived as did the stock market and we the people as well.  The majority of our problem today is because of big business, our governments support of big business and the allowing of big business to basically determine the running of our country, how things are going to work, and by putting more and more people out of good paying jobs thus increasing unemployment rates for exorbitant profits in their own pockets.  By this I mean utilizing the "more with less" philosophy.  We work the good fast employees like dogs and make them beheld to a higher production standard even if this compromises quality to the consumer.  Also the over utilization of robotics.  Robots don't have to eat and sleep.  Squirt them with a little oil now and then is about it.  I think you get the picture here.  Until our government takes back over running the government from big business and does it correctly our country will remain in a hold pattern and not get much better and even slightly worse.

Right now in the stock market there continues some be some good stock splits to play.  But there are also some dogs splitting that you should stay away from.  Today VF Corporation (VFC) split at 4:1.  If you were in on this split I think you will be satisfied.  VFC is best know as the company that makes Wrangler and Lee blue jeans, but make many other things too.  Coming in the near future is MasterCard Incorporated (MA) that will be splitting 10:1  Currently MA is trading at about $815.00 per share.  In our world of the "Charge It" mentality, I simply don't foresee this split being anything but a BUY!  For the more aggressive person that likes mutual funds ride the big business wave since they currently control our economy with something like Amana Income Investor (AMANX) or Principle Capital Appreciation A (CMNWX).  Other individual stocks to watch are GIII and CRVL and JNJ.  I use to own GIII in my portfolio years ago.  Sold it for a nice profit.  But just because you sell out on a stock does not mean their might be a time in the future to revisit it.  I think that time is now for GIII.  CRVL is another stock that use to be a part of my portfolio as well.  I am waiting for a split announcement on this one.  I know it's history and I think it is getting close to time to be putting it back on the radar.  In the event they announce there is going to be a stock split from either of these two companies, GIII or CRVL, make sure to jump on it right away and BUY!  I don't think you will be sorry.  Well unless you make the fatal mistake of not buying after the split announcement...if they do it.

I hope you find todays entry useful information.  I want to say Happy Holiday to everyone.  Please be safe and may all your stock markets dreams come true.

Gus S.



Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Older and Retired Investors

Depending on ones age your portfolio show change as your needs change.  Older and Retired investors need to take a little more conservative approach and start changing their portfolio in that direction from a portfolio that was much more aggressive and looking for growth.  As you approach retirement or are newly retired the conservative changes in your portfolio should be more focused on Income and not Growth.  Your time for Growth in your portfolio is pretty much over with.  Do you keep a little in the growth market.  Yes, I feel that is good.  But that should not be your primary focus anymore.

In the markets you can find many Income Funds.  Most all family of funds have there own product or products for income funds.  But it is your challenge and that of your financial advisor to find the one that is best for you.  My advisor is with JP Morgan/Chase.  Although very good and I like him a lot, he cannot possibly know all the details on all stocks and mutual funds.  He suggested to me a JP Morgan/Chase Income Fund.  Although it was very good, it was not in my best interest and I pointed this out to him as I am very savvy and keep up with things and do my own research.  The Franklin family of funds I found was much better for several reasons.  The cost of stock was lower, the fees were much less, and I had a lot of Franklin family funds already and I would get an additional discount.  The stock is Franklin Income A (FKINX),  This fund is currently trading at $2.36 per share.  It is a very good Income Fund, but there is something you need to remember about Income Funds.  They are not growth stocks.  The price for these types of fund may only move a little in the market, but it is the dividends that generate your income.  The more shares you own the more dividends you will receive each month.  You do have a choice on how you collect your dividends.  Monthly, Quarterly, Semi Annually or Yearly.  You can also chose to have all or part of the dividends reinvested.

These types are funds are very useful to set up in a brokerage account as the government starts making you take money out of your 401K at age 70 1/2.  When they make you take out a payment each year from your 401K and you don't needed it in your pocket for anything.  Just take that money and put it in your Income Fund and allow it to grow a little.  The government makes up a lot of silly rules with 401K's and Roth IRA's but there are ways to make these rules work to your advantage instead of theirs.  Please consult your financial adviser on this.  He should be able to help you beat the system.  By moving your 401K mandatory withdrawals to brokerage account where there are not such rules, you will eventually make the money back in dividends.

Another way to beat the system if you have enough money in your IRA is before you have to start taking mandatory payments from the IRA/401K is switch all your holds in that account to FKINX or other Income Fund.  If your dividends exceed the required amount of withdrawal you simply take the mandated withdrawal by the government and the rest can be left in the IRA for growth.  Thus, you are following the rules and taking the government mandatory payments but your account is generating more dividends than the government requires you to take each year.  This also works with an Inherited IRA like have where I came up with this exact plan.  I make lots more money in dividends that I am required to take by the government and just take out the required withdrawal amount each year that I have set up in semi annual payments in December and July.  Thus, kind of beating the system.

As you approach the age of which you wish to retire you should systematically be converting some of your grow in your portfolio to an Income Fund.  NOT multiple Income Funs, but pick one that is right for you and stay with it.  Some people choose to retire at 62, 65, or perhaps 70.  Some people who are financially able even choose to retire before the age of 62.  But by the time you have set for your age of retirement you should have your growth funds in the amount you wish to convert into an appropriate Income Fund.  I stand by the fact, due to the odds that all MEN should retire at age 62.  You are still allowed to have some income, but it is limited.  But after you turn 65 if you choose to keep working you may work as much as you wish for both males and females.  As females have a longer life expectancy working until age 65 if you work full time and make a good salary then I can get on board with that so long as in good health.  Why?  The life expectancy of men is much shorter than women and this is a fact we surely all agree with unless there is some kind of major health issue that would change this.  Most men that retire at age 65 or 70 will loose in the long run as far as Social Security Benefits if they wait to retire after age 62.  This is a fact that they kind of hide under the pillow and don't tell you much about.  I will give you a personal example.  My father would not retire at age 62, even though I advised him too.  Not only did I advise him of this simply because he was a male, but he also had some health issues like diabetes.  He waited until he was 65 to retire and start collecting Social Security Benefits.  He turned 65 in January and collected 1 Social Security Check and he passed away.  He could have been collecting Social Security Checks for the last 3 years prior had he listened to my advise.  This kind of thing happens more than you think.  And the overwhelming majority of men will never make up the lost Social Security Benefits in their life if they wait to retire at 65 or later.  So guys, don't fall into that trap.

I hope all this information to our older and retiring investors is helpful.  Of  course you are free to add your comments or ask me any questions you may have.

Gus S.


Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

Long Term Investing

Longer Term Investing

I have spoken in other posting about Long Term investments and Short Term Individual Stock investing.  This is the strategy that I personally like.  But this does not mean it is the only strategy for Long Term Investing.

 

I stand by the fact that Mutual Funds should be a long term investment.  That does not mean you cannot change your Mutual Fund holdings if you see one was not a good choice and doing very poorly and making little to no money for you.  You can always transfer that mutual fund to something doing much better within your family of funds.  But it is still a long term investment in my book.  I have changed mine around over the years to keep my money working to its best potential for me to increase the value of my portfolio. 

 

I talked about short term stock holdings previously.  Investing in a stock that I know is running or going to run, waiting on it to increase by 20 to 30 percent, selling it and taking my profits and running.  This does require lots of monitoring and many average investors do not feel they have time or want to do this as regularly as they should.  But the alternative is for Long Term Investing of Individual Stocks.

 

Long Term Investing of Individual Stock is a viable option.  Being able to seek out companies that over the long haul not the short term that will produce you a lot of income as the price per share continues to steadily rise and produce you dividends.  Not all long term individual stocks need to produce dividends to make you money and increase the value of your portfolio.  You must do your research to find these gems to invest in on a long term basis.  I watch Jim Cramer every night on CNBC.  His recommendations are primarily for the long term investor in individual stocks.  I agree with most things he talks about.  But that does not mean you still do not have to do your own research first.  He can point you in the right direction at some good potential investments, but he does not manage your portfolio.  You do and thus it is your responsibility to do the leg work and the research to see if something he has suggested fits into your portfolio and long term goals.  Your long term investing of individual stocks should be diversified into various areas of the market.  But this I mean do not hold for example all Healthcare Stocks or all Tech Stocks or all Retail Stocks etc.  Varity will protect you and keep your portfolio balanced and safer.  Also common sense has to play into your choices.  Your strategy is for long term growth and the potential the stock/company has to grow.  Let's look at stocks like Pepsi, Coke, McDonalds and Wal-Mart.  These types of stocks have reached most of their growth potential.  They have saturated the market Globally.  And unless we find a new planet to colonize they have nowhere else to grow or to grow much.  Thus you will not find them in my portfolio and nor should you.

 

Timing is important when looking for a good deal and the time is now.  For the last three or four days the market has had a small pull back and has closed down.  Poor Black Friday results for retails helped with this while a good Cyber Monday gave little help to the market.  Thus the average retail market did poorly while discount internet web retailers and high end retailers like Tiffany's held strong.  The rich are always going to spend money regardless of the economy.  Almost 50% of people in America still feel we are in a poor economy situation, thus looking for discount prices on the internet at discount retailers.  Thus why these two areas of the retail market are holding strong.  Where you box stores have seen poor showings in the market.  Did I expect this slight pull back in the market.  Yes, and I was waiting to see it happen.  Usually you will see these kinds of pull backs in the market sometime in November or early December and it held true once again this year.  Thus making this a good time to look at some individual stocks for your portfolio before they take off running again.

One other thing we have seen in the market is falling gold prices.  I expect to see these to continue to fall for awhile.  Thus gold companies are starting to look more attract.  One that I have personally been monitoring for a couple of years now is Randgold Resources Limited (GOLD).  This stock has taken a bath over the past year or so.  Why?  Because it is directly related to the prices of gold which have also been tumbling.  Will Randgold recover?  Yes just as soon as gold prices begin to rise again.  I see worse for Randgold in the future as its price continues to go down.  But this is certainly a stock to put on your watch list and monitor.  When gold starts to soar again so will this stock and that is when you need to buy and ride the wave.  When stock prices begin to decline again, dump it and take your profits.

 

Hope this information is helpful to you in your long term investing plans in your portfolio.  Have a question?  Please feel free to leave them in the comments or email me.

 

Gus S.

Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.