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Friday, November 8, 2013

Job Report came out today. Stock Market Up.

Today the floor of the Stock Market closed at another all time high of 15,761.78 due to a "Strong Job Report".  So what does this really mean?

I rely little on things like the monthly Jobs Report and Unemployment Reports.  Why?  Simply they are unreliable numbers and do not show the true meaning or value of the numbers to the average person to make them truly meaningful.  Today it was announced that 204,000 new jobs were created.  What they fail to tell you is what kind of jobs?  With research you can get this in formation if you dig and search.  What kind of jobs were these?  Were they mainly minimum wage or slightly above minimum wage jobs?  Where they part time or full time?  Where they $100,000 a year jobs?  How many people left one job for another job because it pays $0.05 more per hour.  The Unemployment rate is still at 7.3%.  So how many of the 204,000 new jobs are actually good paying jobs putting skilled workers back to work?  Very few.  In poking around looking at government websites and Internet articles, the overwhelming majority of these jobs were in minimum wage jobs in the retail, food, and hospitality industries.  Why?  The answer is easy.  They are beefing up for the holiday season to collect the consumers holiday spending cash when we all go out shopping in retail stores and eating more fast food on the go.  This report in my opinion was NOT a "Strong Job Report".  It was a normal annual occurrence of which few of these jobs will be retained after the holiday season if over. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/united-states-underemployment-why-wrong-jobs-propped-today-162511421.html

Also, Unemployment figures are never a good indications of our nations true unemployment rate.  Why?  Because less and less people each month naturally fall off the unemployment radar.  It is not that they got employment, in most cases it is due to they are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits.  And these people fly under the radar and are not counted in the actual unemployment figures.  Another group that is NOT counted in unemployment figures are hundreds of thousand of people living in states like North Carolina that cut their state matching in unemployment and these unemployed are getting less than half the normal unemployment benefit because the Federal Government pulled their unemployment funding in this North Carolina (and other states) as they were not meeting the states minimum requirement to get Federal contributions/funding to those people on and eligible for unemployment benefits.  Thus as the Federal Government is not paying out any money for unemployment benefits to these states, the people getting unemployment in those states are NOT counted in our unemployment rate figure of 7.3%.  If all these people were included from these states that are currently excluded from federal compensation that 7.3% figure would be much higher.  Also, many other states have cut the weeks of eligibility for unemployment benefits in half or more.  Again, these people get thrown off unemployment benefits sooner, but that does not mean they are employed.  Again flawing the "True" unemployment rate.

My advise is to not worry yourself about these kinds of things.  Their are few long term effects on the stock market, good or bad.  And if you have a well put together portfolio with a good base of mutual funds you have nothing to worry about. 

Gus

Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.

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