We have been going through what has been a mini correction in the market. It was not a full correction. But that's help you and me, the investors. The Dow is back above 16,000. Many of the so called experts think it will rise to 17,500 to 18,000 by years end of 2014. I think this is being a little over optimistic. I feel we are going to see some increases in the interest rates as the government continues to less and less help support the markets. I personally do not think this is a bad thing, but it may result in less profits for the investor as this happens. Remember when mortgage rates and car loans were from 6 to 10% interest? Not to say we will see that in 2014. But we will gain in the next few years as our economy grows and stabilizes. So you want that new house or car? Now is the time to do it. As you will only continue to see a rise in interest rates as time moves forward.
So what is HOT right now in the stock market that I am personally watching, Energy Stocks. In the next several years we should see a big rise in energy stocks, especially those heavy in natural gas production. This may be something to research and talk to your financial advisor as what would be good for your portfolio.
Medical Stocks are always going to be good choices in your portfolio for the future. I tend to stay away from Health Insurance carries such as Humana, Cigna, et.. They don't have the profitability in the market that other choices will gain for you. Lets look at Rite-Aid Pharmacy (RAD). If you have been on this gravy train since August 2013 you would see over a 90% return on your investment. And yes, this is in my personal portfolio of individual stocks. CVS Pharmacy (CVS) and Walgreens (WAG) are the big boys in pharmacies, but the profit margins for the investor have not been there like Rite-Aid over the past year. I also like CorVel (CRVL). They have a good history in the market. Although they are no longer in my current portfolio, I have made lots of money off them in the past as an investor. I even use to work for the company many years ago. What about Forest Laboratory (FRX). Since August of 2013 when this stock was pretty flat it is up over 112%. I personally do not have this in my portfolio, but is on my watch list. Kick yourself like me if you failed to get in prior to August 2013. For those of you that like Mutual Funds (I do too) Take a good look at (PRHSX), This is a good T.Rowe Price Mutual Fund that deal strictly in Healthcare Stocks. This is the only Mutual Fund for me in the healthcare sector. It is currently up over 14% since August 2013.
Right now another good place to be invest is in retail. Good retail tail stocks. Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) wanting to buy out Eddie Bauer. Jos. A. Bank stock took a jump and I think the time to sell is now as the deal has hit a snag.
For those that like to play Stock Spits (like me). They are out there. Some are good. Some not so good. I had invested strongly (for me) in V.F.Corporation (VFC). It had a nice split that met my criteria and it paid off like a hot slot machine at the casino. After the split it continued it's climb and I sold it off and took my money and ran. This is what I look for in Stock Splits. A stock that is going to split below it's 52 week low (more the better) and hopefully continue it's climb in the market. Right now in the market what looks to me that it has that potential? Westlake Chemical Corp. (WLK). Yes, I practice what I preach and I reinvested money and got back in with this stock. It is in the Basics Material sector and is a Chemical Stock. It is going to split on March 18, 2014 for holders of the stock on February 28, 2014. So yes you still have time to get in and buy prior to February 28, 2014. Also, WLK is going to increase dividends and pay a cash dividend prior to the split date.
I always hope you enjoy my blog entries regarding the stock market. I invite you to be come a follower of my block and check it for updates and read my postings.
Sincerely
Gus S.
Disclaimer:
Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
I have become known as the family stockbroker. My Financial Advisor encourages me to be sponsored and get my licence. However I am retired and have no desire. But that does not mean I cannot help others with their investing in the stock market. I do not claim to be an expert Financial Advisor so before investing always check with your personal Financial Advisor first.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Friday, January 17, 2014
Marijuana Stocks: Buy or Not Buy?
A reader and friend of mine since high school wrote to me the other day asking for my opinion on Marijuana Stocks and if she should buy some or not. I appreciated the question and was happy to give her my opinion and advise. Marijuana stocks have come to light with investors due to the recent legalization of marijuana for recreational use in Colorado. So I thought this would be a good topic to address with my readers and site members as well.
Marijuana stocks have been on the market since the legalization in many states that have approved it for medical use. Things such as glaucoma, arthritis, ADHD, pain issues not well controlled by conventional methods and those not eligible for surgery for treatment. It was not until a few weeks ago that it was legalized for recreational use in one state, Colorado. Do remember that Federal Law still prohibits the use of marijuana and the clash between State Government and Federal Government has yet to take place to see how long these State Laws will be allowed to remain.
In the thoughts of purchasing Marijuana Stocks for your portfolio there are many other issues to consider too. Questions like, will these stocks benefit my portfolio? Are you willing and able to loose your investment if things turn bad for this very small sector in the market? Have you done your homework and evaluated your risk? Are you savvy in the market and have a good knowledge and portfolio that includes various other individual stocks? If your answer is "NO" to any of these questions you should not buy marijuana stocks. All you would be doing is buying them for a novelty to tell your friends you own stock in a marijuana company. Novelties do not make you money in your portfolio.
Other things we have to consider. We currently only have one state, Colorado that has approved recreational marijuana for use. It is tightly restricted with amounts you can purchase. Not every city or county in the state is allowed to sell it. And it is illegal to cross state lines with it and bring it home with you if you live in a state outside of Colorado. Who in the future will jump on the band wagon and join Colorado in approving it for recreational use in their state and how long will this take? You know our political and legal system and things do not tend to move quickly. How many states might get on the wagon with Colorado and how many won't during your life time? Probably not many. Remember we have LOTS of conservative Red Republican states and lots of states with the good ole Bible Thumpers. Many states still won't embrace the Supreme Court Ruling regarding gay rights. They are rewriting their state constitution and doing everything they can to fight the ruling. Such states like Utah and Indiana. So don't bet money that recreational use of marijuana is going to go over well with too many states. What states might sooner or later jump on the wagon in follow in Colorado's footsteps? Perhaps Massachusetts, Washington DC, Minnesota, Florida, California. I think it could be possible in the far future for Arizona, Rhode Island, and perhaps Iowa or Hawaii. But that is only a guess and your guess would be no better than mine.
If you are hell bent on adding a marijuana stock to your portfolio now would be the time. After other states follow in Colorado's footsteps (if they do) the timing would be too late. If you are one that feels you are willing to take the risk my suggestions would be marijuana stocks such as CANV, CBIS, and HEMP.
Will you find any such marijuana stocks in my portfolio? The answer is simply "NO"! First of all these types of stocks are all OTC or Pink Slip stocks, which I refuse to deal in due to their risk factors. Look at it sensibly. If they were worthy stocks they would be on the NASDX or NYSE. Of course there are a couple of OTC stocks that do not fit the normal rule such as Rolls Royce (RYCEY). With the uncertainty of the future for marijuana stocks I am not sliding them into my portfolio. I think there are a lot better things I could steer you to in the Healthcare Industry than something like marijuana stocks. Such as Rite Aide Pharmacy (RAD) which is up 77.5% since August 2013 (In my portfolio). Forest Labs (FRX) up 59% since August 2013, Bristol-Myers Squibb up 26.5% since August 2013 or how about Gilead Sciences (GILD) up over 48% in 2013. For you mutual fund investors the best healthcare mutual fund hands down is T. Row Price Health Sciences (PRHSX) which is up 51.40% for 2013. I just feel there is a lot more opportunity to make money in 2014 than a marijuana stock and I am sticking with those stocks on the NASDX and NYSE that have proven track histories over the years and in the long haul. I think you will find this to your advantage as well for your portfolio.
I also welcome any of your questions or comments to my blog entry. Always feel welcome to do so.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Marijuana stocks have been on the market since the legalization in many states that have approved it for medical use. Things such as glaucoma, arthritis, ADHD, pain issues not well controlled by conventional methods and those not eligible for surgery for treatment. It was not until a few weeks ago that it was legalized for recreational use in one state, Colorado. Do remember that Federal Law still prohibits the use of marijuana and the clash between State Government and Federal Government has yet to take place to see how long these State Laws will be allowed to remain.
In the thoughts of purchasing Marijuana Stocks for your portfolio there are many other issues to consider too. Questions like, will these stocks benefit my portfolio? Are you willing and able to loose your investment if things turn bad for this very small sector in the market? Have you done your homework and evaluated your risk? Are you savvy in the market and have a good knowledge and portfolio that includes various other individual stocks? If your answer is "NO" to any of these questions you should not buy marijuana stocks. All you would be doing is buying them for a novelty to tell your friends you own stock in a marijuana company. Novelties do not make you money in your portfolio.
Other things we have to consider. We currently only have one state, Colorado that has approved recreational marijuana for use. It is tightly restricted with amounts you can purchase. Not every city or county in the state is allowed to sell it. And it is illegal to cross state lines with it and bring it home with you if you live in a state outside of Colorado. Who in the future will jump on the band wagon and join Colorado in approving it for recreational use in their state and how long will this take? You know our political and legal system and things do not tend to move quickly. How many states might get on the wagon with Colorado and how many won't during your life time? Probably not many. Remember we have LOTS of conservative Red Republican states and lots of states with the good ole Bible Thumpers. Many states still won't embrace the Supreme Court Ruling regarding gay rights. They are rewriting their state constitution and doing everything they can to fight the ruling. Such states like Utah and Indiana. So don't bet money that recreational use of marijuana is going to go over well with too many states. What states might sooner or later jump on the wagon in follow in Colorado's footsteps? Perhaps Massachusetts, Washington DC, Minnesota, Florida, California. I think it could be possible in the far future for Arizona, Rhode Island, and perhaps Iowa or Hawaii. But that is only a guess and your guess would be no better than mine.
If you are hell bent on adding a marijuana stock to your portfolio now would be the time. After other states follow in Colorado's footsteps (if they do) the timing would be too late. If you are one that feels you are willing to take the risk my suggestions would be marijuana stocks such as CANV, CBIS, and HEMP.
Will you find any such marijuana stocks in my portfolio? The answer is simply "NO"! First of all these types of stocks are all OTC or Pink Slip stocks, which I refuse to deal in due to their risk factors. Look at it sensibly. If they were worthy stocks they would be on the NASDX or NYSE. Of course there are a couple of OTC stocks that do not fit the normal rule such as Rolls Royce (RYCEY). With the uncertainty of the future for marijuana stocks I am not sliding them into my portfolio. I think there are a lot better things I could steer you to in the Healthcare Industry than something like marijuana stocks. Such as Rite Aide Pharmacy (RAD) which is up 77.5% since August 2013 (In my portfolio). Forest Labs (FRX) up 59% since August 2013, Bristol-Myers Squibb up 26.5% since August 2013 or how about Gilead Sciences (GILD) up over 48% in 2013. For you mutual fund investors the best healthcare mutual fund hands down is T. Row Price Health Sciences (PRHSX) which is up 51.40% for 2013. I just feel there is a lot more opportunity to make money in 2014 than a marijuana stock and I am sticking with those stocks on the NASDX and NYSE that have proven track histories over the years and in the long haul. I think you will find this to your advantage as well for your portfolio.
I also welcome any of your questions or comments to my blog entry. Always feel welcome to do so.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Monday, January 6, 2014
Where is the Stock Market Going in 2014?
First of all I do not have a Crystal Ball. I can only share with you my personal beliefs, personal research and the research, articles and comments by the so called "experts". With that said I tend to agree with the so called "experts" for the upcoming year.
We are set for an upward trend in the market for 2014. But don't hold your breath waiting for another year like 2013 in 2014 or several years down the road. I see Individual Stocks doing much better than Mutual Funds. But not so much better that they warrant inexperienced investors to leap into the individual markets. Both individual stocks and mutual funds will both rise over 2014, but nothing like in 2014. The uphill climb will continue, but at a much slower pace. Those that have starting investing in individual stocks I warn to stay away from "most" pharmaceutical companies. If you want a good pharmaceutical diversification in your portfolio I suggest a good mutual fund like PRHSX. I am staying away from Pfizer (PFE). But if you want a better choice and what some Pfizer in your portfolio I am going to suggest Zoetix (ZTS). This is Pfizer's Pet Medication company which is growing, but you need to be in this one for the long haul and it has had it's ups and downs. I just don't feel most pharmaceutical companies are the place to be in 2014 due to most all of them have no new or exciting drug releases on the burner and without that, one big lawsuit on one of their existing drugs will kill you with the that stock holding. If you are looking for Individual Stocks, there are going to be some good buys to make, but you are going to really have to hunt and research to find them. If you are looking at Individual Stocks in the list of the DOW 30 my suggestions are 3M who has been killing it and I think will continue to climb about 20% more in 2014. I would also be looking at Boeing and Caterpillar to do about the same. Another good consideration is Walt Disney and Intel. There are a couple of others that have some good potential, but I am for sure staying away from Pfizer, Wal-Mart, Johnson and Johnson, and Proctor and Gamble.
What about the Mutual Funds? I am sticking with Large Cap and Small Cap funds for 2014. The growth will be slow but I think these are your best choices over most other mutual fund sectors. Can you look at mutual funds with bond holdings in them? I am going to say yes for 2014 with caution and moderation. I would not go with a mutual fund that has more than 20 to 25 percent in bond holdings and the stocks in the mutual would have to be real winners.
What about Bond Funds? Well, I pretty much answered that question all ready. A mutual fund made up entirely of bonds I am going to stay far away from for 2014. Although interest will continue to climb, I still think there are better places to invest your money. I don't foresee Bonds playing a significant roll in 2014.
What about CD's and Annuities? Not even a viable option in 2014 for any investor at any level. Interest rates will not go up significantly enough to help them. Also CD's and Annuities interest rates are slow to be raised by banks and insurance companies. I cannot recommend them for 2014. A better option for those who are very conservative investors is a good balanced mutual fund or conservative managed account through your financial advisor. J P Morgan Chase has some excellent Managed Account options.
What about Precious Metals? I think we are going to see much the same with Silver, Gold, other precious metals and the companies out there that mine them. I don't think that they are going to do a whole lot for your portfolio in 2014, but the prices are low right now and interest rates are starting to go up and that is the prediction for the future. Buying Gold and Silver in small amounts in your portfolio may be viable as interest rates climb again, but you are going to be waiting a few years to cash in. So I see it as a long term investment that you are going to have to hold for several years in your portfolio to see a good profit.
I hope this information is helpful to you for 2014. Hope we see better come year end than what I am seeing now. Only time will tell.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
We are set for an upward trend in the market for 2014. But don't hold your breath waiting for another year like 2013 in 2014 or several years down the road. I see Individual Stocks doing much better than Mutual Funds. But not so much better that they warrant inexperienced investors to leap into the individual markets. Both individual stocks and mutual funds will both rise over 2014, but nothing like in 2014. The uphill climb will continue, but at a much slower pace. Those that have starting investing in individual stocks I warn to stay away from "most" pharmaceutical companies. If you want a good pharmaceutical diversification in your portfolio I suggest a good mutual fund like PRHSX. I am staying away from Pfizer (PFE). But if you want a better choice and what some Pfizer in your portfolio I am going to suggest Zoetix (ZTS). This is Pfizer's Pet Medication company which is growing, but you need to be in this one for the long haul and it has had it's ups and downs. I just don't feel most pharmaceutical companies are the place to be in 2014 due to most all of them have no new or exciting drug releases on the burner and without that, one big lawsuit on one of their existing drugs will kill you with the that stock holding. If you are looking for Individual Stocks, there are going to be some good buys to make, but you are going to really have to hunt and research to find them. If you are looking at Individual Stocks in the list of the DOW 30 my suggestions are 3M who has been killing it and I think will continue to climb about 20% more in 2014. I would also be looking at Boeing and Caterpillar to do about the same. Another good consideration is Walt Disney and Intel. There are a couple of others that have some good potential, but I am for sure staying away from Pfizer, Wal-Mart, Johnson and Johnson, and Proctor and Gamble.
What about the Mutual Funds? I am sticking with Large Cap and Small Cap funds for 2014. The growth will be slow but I think these are your best choices over most other mutual fund sectors. Can you look at mutual funds with bond holdings in them? I am going to say yes for 2014 with caution and moderation. I would not go with a mutual fund that has more than 20 to 25 percent in bond holdings and the stocks in the mutual would have to be real winners.
What about Bond Funds? Well, I pretty much answered that question all ready. A mutual fund made up entirely of bonds I am going to stay far away from for 2014. Although interest will continue to climb, I still think there are better places to invest your money. I don't foresee Bonds playing a significant roll in 2014.
What about CD's and Annuities? Not even a viable option in 2014 for any investor at any level. Interest rates will not go up significantly enough to help them. Also CD's and Annuities interest rates are slow to be raised by banks and insurance companies. I cannot recommend them for 2014. A better option for those who are very conservative investors is a good balanced mutual fund or conservative managed account through your financial advisor. J P Morgan Chase has some excellent Managed Account options.
What about Precious Metals? I think we are going to see much the same with Silver, Gold, other precious metals and the companies out there that mine them. I don't think that they are going to do a whole lot for your portfolio in 2014, but the prices are low right now and interest rates are starting to go up and that is the prediction for the future. Buying Gold and Silver in small amounts in your portfolio may be viable as interest rates climb again, but you are going to be waiting a few years to cash in. So I see it as a long term investment that you are going to have to hold for several years in your portfolio to see a good profit.
I hope this information is helpful to you for 2014. Hope we see better come year end than what I am seeing now. Only time will tell.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Individual Stocks: Dividend versus Non-Dividend.
Historically time and time again Dividend Stocks have provided investors with bigger over all gains than Non-Dividend individual stocks.
Is this true? Well yes it is if you are a long term investor that is going to buy such an individual and sit on it in your portfolio for years. However, people that invest like me who are more interested in the short term than the long term, this may not be true.
What is the big difference between a short term and long term investor? The biggest difference if that you purchase a stock for the long term that pays out good dividends that you reinvest over the course of years and years. You hit difference price points as the stock goes up or as it declines. Thus adding more and more shares to your initial holding. You may also be adding money and buying more of this stock you chose on a systematic basis like one a month to hit different price points and build on the number of shares you own. With a short term investor such as myself (not day traders), dividends are of little benefit or consequence. They are making strategic moves in the market for short term gains and benefits. Short term investors study market trends, look for under valued stocks, and opportunities for short term gains usually 10 to 30 percent. Sell and take their profits and look for the next opportunity or two to reinvest their money. In the past 4 months alone I am up over 12% in my individual short term portfolio holdings.
So to break this down in a little more basic terms as to where Dividend Stocks are better than Non-Dividend stocks it really depends on what kind of investor you are and the length of time you are going to hold that stock in your portfolio. Long Term, good paying dividend stocks with some growth potential. Short Term, it really does not matter. Your looking for a quick growth cycle, take your money and run to the next opportunity.
Also remember, you should be very knowledgeable about the stock market, have done your research on a stock and be willing to invest money that you could possibly lose without placing yourself into a financial whole you cannot dig out of. For the new investor in Individual Stocks I suggest looking for a Stock Investor Group in your city or area. They are a great way to get your feet wet and learn more about Individual Stock investing.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Is this true? Well yes it is if you are a long term investor that is going to buy such an individual and sit on it in your portfolio for years. However, people that invest like me who are more interested in the short term than the long term, this may not be true.
What is the big difference between a short term and long term investor? The biggest difference if that you purchase a stock for the long term that pays out good dividends that you reinvest over the course of years and years. You hit difference price points as the stock goes up or as it declines. Thus adding more and more shares to your initial holding. You may also be adding money and buying more of this stock you chose on a systematic basis like one a month to hit different price points and build on the number of shares you own. With a short term investor such as myself (not day traders), dividends are of little benefit or consequence. They are making strategic moves in the market for short term gains and benefits. Short term investors study market trends, look for under valued stocks, and opportunities for short term gains usually 10 to 30 percent. Sell and take their profits and look for the next opportunity or two to reinvest their money. In the past 4 months alone I am up over 12% in my individual short term portfolio holdings.
So to break this down in a little more basic terms as to where Dividend Stocks are better than Non-Dividend stocks it really depends on what kind of investor you are and the length of time you are going to hold that stock in your portfolio. Long Term, good paying dividend stocks with some growth potential. Short Term, it really does not matter. Your looking for a quick growth cycle, take your money and run to the next opportunity.
Also remember, you should be very knowledgeable about the stock market, have done your research on a stock and be willing to invest money that you could possibly lose without placing yourself into a financial whole you cannot dig out of. For the new investor in Individual Stocks I suggest looking for a Stock Investor Group in your city or area. They are a great way to get your feet wet and learn more about Individual Stock investing.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Where does the Stock Market go now?
This past week we have seen some changes in the markets due to the looming announcements by the Fed regarding how much they were going to cut the stimulus package of buying bonds to help in the support of the stock market and to keep interest rates down. After their announcement we found out they were not going to make as big of cuts as expected. After being in a flat pattern much of the week, after the announcement the markets began to rise again and the Dow hitting another record high.
Today there was more good news for the market as consumer spending for the month of November 2013 was up 0.5% causing the market to open on a high note. The market is being supported in part due to your Internet Stocks such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.. My opinion remains that some such Internet Stocks are way over valued and playing off their names and investors fantasy's. Twitter remains operating in the red. A company that losses money instead of makes money with a stock price it is showing in my opinion is a recipe for a disaster. If you absolutely must have an internet stock in your portfolio Facebook is the better bet. At least they operate in the black and have a genius for an owner of the company that knows how to make money.
As I sit back and reflect on the current market and our economy of the past where do I think the current market will go? The simple answer is UP. I see this continued rise through the spring of the year and into the summer of 2014. Yes, as the Federal Reserves continues to cut back on the stimulus package interest rates will rise slowly, which really is not a bad thing. Remember back the way it use to be in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Interest rates were anywhere from 6 to 10 percent on a mortgage rate when buying a new house. Interest rates when buying a car were about the same, perhaps slightly less. Interest rates were a product of competition by the lenders as to who gave the best rates, not as a product of a government stimulus package. The government survived as did the stock market and we the people as well. The majority of our problem today is because of big business, our governments support of big business and the allowing of big business to basically determine the running of our country, how things are going to work, and by putting more and more people out of good paying jobs thus increasing unemployment rates for exorbitant profits in their own pockets. By this I mean utilizing the "more with less" philosophy. We work the good fast employees like dogs and make them beheld to a higher production standard even if this compromises quality to the consumer. Also the over utilization of robotics. Robots don't have to eat and sleep. Squirt them with a little oil now and then is about it. I think you get the picture here. Until our government takes back over running the government from big business and does it correctly our country will remain in a hold pattern and not get much better and even slightly worse.
Right now in the stock market there continues some be some good stock splits to play. But there are also some dogs splitting that you should stay away from. Today VF Corporation (VFC) split at 4:1. If you were in on this split I think you will be satisfied. VFC is best know as the company that makes Wrangler and Lee blue jeans, but make many other things too. Coming in the near future is MasterCard Incorporated (MA) that will be splitting 10:1 Currently MA is trading at about $815.00 per share. In our world of the "Charge It" mentality, I simply don't foresee this split being anything but a BUY! For the more aggressive person that likes mutual funds ride the big business wave since they currently control our economy with something like Amana Income Investor (AMANX) or Principle Capital Appreciation A (CMNWX). Other individual stocks to watch are GIII and CRVL and JNJ. I use to own GIII in my portfolio years ago. Sold it for a nice profit. But just because you sell out on a stock does not mean their might be a time in the future to revisit it. I think that time is now for GIII. CRVL is another stock that use to be a part of my portfolio as well. I am waiting for a split announcement on this one. I know it's history and I think it is getting close to time to be putting it back on the radar. In the event they announce there is going to be a stock split from either of these two companies, GIII or CRVL, make sure to jump on it right away and BUY! I don't think you will be sorry. Well unless you make the fatal mistake of not buying after the split announcement...if they do it.
I hope you find todays entry useful information. I want to say Happy Holiday to everyone. Please be safe and may all your stock markets dreams come true.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Today there was more good news for the market as consumer spending for the month of November 2013 was up 0.5% causing the market to open on a high note. The market is being supported in part due to your Internet Stocks such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.. My opinion remains that some such Internet Stocks are way over valued and playing off their names and investors fantasy's. Twitter remains operating in the red. A company that losses money instead of makes money with a stock price it is showing in my opinion is a recipe for a disaster. If you absolutely must have an internet stock in your portfolio Facebook is the better bet. At least they operate in the black and have a genius for an owner of the company that knows how to make money.
As I sit back and reflect on the current market and our economy of the past where do I think the current market will go? The simple answer is UP. I see this continued rise through the spring of the year and into the summer of 2014. Yes, as the Federal Reserves continues to cut back on the stimulus package interest rates will rise slowly, which really is not a bad thing. Remember back the way it use to be in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Interest rates were anywhere from 6 to 10 percent on a mortgage rate when buying a new house. Interest rates when buying a car were about the same, perhaps slightly less. Interest rates were a product of competition by the lenders as to who gave the best rates, not as a product of a government stimulus package. The government survived as did the stock market and we the people as well. The majority of our problem today is because of big business, our governments support of big business and the allowing of big business to basically determine the running of our country, how things are going to work, and by putting more and more people out of good paying jobs thus increasing unemployment rates for exorbitant profits in their own pockets. By this I mean utilizing the "more with less" philosophy. We work the good fast employees like dogs and make them beheld to a higher production standard even if this compromises quality to the consumer. Also the over utilization of robotics. Robots don't have to eat and sleep. Squirt them with a little oil now and then is about it. I think you get the picture here. Until our government takes back over running the government from big business and does it correctly our country will remain in a hold pattern and not get much better and even slightly worse.
Right now in the stock market there continues some be some good stock splits to play. But there are also some dogs splitting that you should stay away from. Today VF Corporation (VFC) split at 4:1. If you were in on this split I think you will be satisfied. VFC is best know as the company that makes Wrangler and Lee blue jeans, but make many other things too. Coming in the near future is MasterCard Incorporated (MA) that will be splitting 10:1 Currently MA is trading at about $815.00 per share. In our world of the "Charge It" mentality, I simply don't foresee this split being anything but a BUY! For the more aggressive person that likes mutual funds ride the big business wave since they currently control our economy with something like Amana Income Investor (AMANX) or Principle Capital Appreciation A (CMNWX). Other individual stocks to watch are GIII and CRVL and JNJ. I use to own GIII in my portfolio years ago. Sold it for a nice profit. But just because you sell out on a stock does not mean their might be a time in the future to revisit it. I think that time is now for GIII. CRVL is another stock that use to be a part of my portfolio as well. I am waiting for a split announcement on this one. I know it's history and I think it is getting close to time to be putting it back on the radar. In the event they announce there is going to be a stock split from either of these two companies, GIII or CRVL, make sure to jump on it right away and BUY! I don't think you will be sorry. Well unless you make the fatal mistake of not buying after the split announcement...if they do it.
I hope you find todays entry useful information. I want to say Happy Holiday to everyone. Please be safe and may all your stock markets dreams come true.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Older and Retired Investors
Depending on ones age your portfolio show change as your needs change. Older and Retired investors need to take a little more conservative approach and start changing their portfolio in that direction from a portfolio that was much more aggressive and looking for growth. As you approach retirement or are newly retired the conservative changes in your portfolio should be more focused on Income and not Growth. Your time for Growth in your portfolio is pretty much over with. Do you keep a little in the growth market. Yes, I feel that is good. But that should not be your primary focus anymore.
In the markets you can find many Income Funds. Most all family of funds have there own product or products for income funds. But it is your challenge and that of your financial advisor to find the one that is best for you. My advisor is with JP Morgan/Chase. Although very good and I like him a lot, he cannot possibly know all the details on all stocks and mutual funds. He suggested to me a JP Morgan/Chase Income Fund. Although it was very good, it was not in my best interest and I pointed this out to him as I am very savvy and keep up with things and do my own research. The Franklin family of funds I found was much better for several reasons. The cost of stock was lower, the fees were much less, and I had a lot of Franklin family funds already and I would get an additional discount. The stock is Franklin Income A (FKINX), This fund is currently trading at $2.36 per share. It is a very good Income Fund, but there is something you need to remember about Income Funds. They are not growth stocks. The price for these types of fund may only move a little in the market, but it is the dividends that generate your income. The more shares you own the more dividends you will receive each month. You do have a choice on how you collect your dividends. Monthly, Quarterly, Semi Annually or Yearly. You can also chose to have all or part of the dividends reinvested.
These types are funds are very useful to set up in a brokerage account as the government starts making you take money out of your 401K at age 70 1/2. When they make you take out a payment each year from your 401K and you don't needed it in your pocket for anything. Just take that money and put it in your Income Fund and allow it to grow a little. The government makes up a lot of silly rules with 401K's and Roth IRA's but there are ways to make these rules work to your advantage instead of theirs. Please consult your financial adviser on this. He should be able to help you beat the system. By moving your 401K mandatory withdrawals to brokerage account where there are not such rules, you will eventually make the money back in dividends.
Another way to beat the system if you have enough money in your IRA is before you have to start taking mandatory payments from the IRA/401K is switch all your holds in that account to FKINX or other Income Fund. If your dividends exceed the required amount of withdrawal you simply take the mandated withdrawal by the government and the rest can be left in the IRA for growth. Thus, you are following the rules and taking the government mandatory payments but your account is generating more dividends than the government requires you to take each year. This also works with an Inherited IRA like have where I came up with this exact plan. I make lots more money in dividends that I am required to take by the government and just take out the required withdrawal amount each year that I have set up in semi annual payments in December and July. Thus, kind of beating the system.
As you approach the age of which you wish to retire you should systematically be converting some of your grow in your portfolio to an Income Fund. NOT multiple Income Funs, but pick one that is right for you and stay with it. Some people choose to retire at 62, 65, or perhaps 70. Some people who are financially able even choose to retire before the age of 62. But by the time you have set for your age of retirement you should have your growth funds in the amount you wish to convert into an appropriate Income Fund. I stand by the fact, due to the odds that all MEN should retire at age 62. You are still allowed to have some income, but it is limited. But after you turn 65 if you choose to keep working you may work as much as you wish for both males and females. As females have a longer life expectancy working until age 65 if you work full time and make a good salary then I can get on board with that so long as in good health. Why? The life expectancy of men is much shorter than women and this is a fact we surely all agree with unless there is some kind of major health issue that would change this. Most men that retire at age 65 or 70 will loose in the long run as far as Social Security Benefits if they wait to retire after age 62. This is a fact that they kind of hide under the pillow and don't tell you much about. I will give you a personal example. My father would not retire at age 62, even though I advised him too. Not only did I advise him of this simply because he was a male, but he also had some health issues like diabetes. He waited until he was 65 to retire and start collecting Social Security Benefits. He turned 65 in January and collected 1 Social Security Check and he passed away. He could have been collecting Social Security Checks for the last 3 years prior had he listened to my advise. This kind of thing happens more than you think. And the overwhelming majority of men will never make up the lost Social Security Benefits in their life if they wait to retire at 65 or later. So guys, don't fall into that trap.
I hope all this information to our older and retiring investors is helpful. Of course you are free to add your comments or ask me any questions you may have.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
In the markets you can find many Income Funds. Most all family of funds have there own product or products for income funds. But it is your challenge and that of your financial advisor to find the one that is best for you. My advisor is with JP Morgan/Chase. Although very good and I like him a lot, he cannot possibly know all the details on all stocks and mutual funds. He suggested to me a JP Morgan/Chase Income Fund. Although it was very good, it was not in my best interest and I pointed this out to him as I am very savvy and keep up with things and do my own research. The Franklin family of funds I found was much better for several reasons. The cost of stock was lower, the fees were much less, and I had a lot of Franklin family funds already and I would get an additional discount. The stock is Franklin Income A (FKINX), This fund is currently trading at $2.36 per share. It is a very good Income Fund, but there is something you need to remember about Income Funds. They are not growth stocks. The price for these types of fund may only move a little in the market, but it is the dividends that generate your income. The more shares you own the more dividends you will receive each month. You do have a choice on how you collect your dividends. Monthly, Quarterly, Semi Annually or Yearly. You can also chose to have all or part of the dividends reinvested.
These types are funds are very useful to set up in a brokerage account as the government starts making you take money out of your 401K at age 70 1/2. When they make you take out a payment each year from your 401K and you don't needed it in your pocket for anything. Just take that money and put it in your Income Fund and allow it to grow a little. The government makes up a lot of silly rules with 401K's and Roth IRA's but there are ways to make these rules work to your advantage instead of theirs. Please consult your financial adviser on this. He should be able to help you beat the system. By moving your 401K mandatory withdrawals to brokerage account where there are not such rules, you will eventually make the money back in dividends.
Another way to beat the system if you have enough money in your IRA is before you have to start taking mandatory payments from the IRA/401K is switch all your holds in that account to FKINX or other Income Fund. If your dividends exceed the required amount of withdrawal you simply take the mandated withdrawal by the government and the rest can be left in the IRA for growth. Thus, you are following the rules and taking the government mandatory payments but your account is generating more dividends than the government requires you to take each year. This also works with an Inherited IRA like have where I came up with this exact plan. I make lots more money in dividends that I am required to take by the government and just take out the required withdrawal amount each year that I have set up in semi annual payments in December and July. Thus, kind of beating the system.
As you approach the age of which you wish to retire you should systematically be converting some of your grow in your portfolio to an Income Fund. NOT multiple Income Funs, but pick one that is right for you and stay with it. Some people choose to retire at 62, 65, or perhaps 70. Some people who are financially able even choose to retire before the age of 62. But by the time you have set for your age of retirement you should have your growth funds in the amount you wish to convert into an appropriate Income Fund. I stand by the fact, due to the odds that all MEN should retire at age 62. You are still allowed to have some income, but it is limited. But after you turn 65 if you choose to keep working you may work as much as you wish for both males and females. As females have a longer life expectancy working until age 65 if you work full time and make a good salary then I can get on board with that so long as in good health. Why? The life expectancy of men is much shorter than women and this is a fact we surely all agree with unless there is some kind of major health issue that would change this. Most men that retire at age 65 or 70 will loose in the long run as far as Social Security Benefits if they wait to retire after age 62. This is a fact that they kind of hide under the pillow and don't tell you much about. I will give you a personal example. My father would not retire at age 62, even though I advised him too. Not only did I advise him of this simply because he was a male, but he also had some health issues like diabetes. He waited until he was 65 to retire and start collecting Social Security Benefits. He turned 65 in January and collected 1 Social Security Check and he passed away. He could have been collecting Social Security Checks for the last 3 years prior had he listened to my advise. This kind of thing happens more than you think. And the overwhelming majority of men will never make up the lost Social Security Benefits in their life if they wait to retire at 65 or later. So guys, don't fall into that trap.
I hope all this information to our older and retiring investors is helpful. Of course you are free to add your comments or ask me any questions you may have.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Long Term Investing
Longer Term Investing
I have spoken in other posting about Long Term
investments and Short Term Individual Stock investing. This is the strategy that I personally like. But this does not mean it is the only
strategy for Long Term Investing.
I stand by the fact that Mutual Funds should be a long
term investment. That does not mean you cannot
change your Mutual Fund holdings if you see one was not a good choice and doing
very poorly and making little to no money for you. You can always transfer that mutual fund to
something doing much better within your family of funds. But it is still a long term investment in my
book. I have changed mine around over
the years to keep my money working to its best potential for me to increase the
value of my portfolio.
I talked about short term stock holdings previously. Investing in a stock that I know is running
or going to run, waiting on it to increase by 20 to 30 percent, selling it and
taking my profits and running. This does
require lots of monitoring and many average investors do not feel they have
time or want to do this as regularly as they should. But the alternative is for Long Term
Investing of Individual Stocks.
Long Term Investing of Individual Stock is a viable
option. Being able to seek out companies
that over the long haul not the short term that will produce you a lot of
income as the price per share continues to steadily rise and produce you
dividends. Not all long term individual
stocks need to produce dividends to make you money and increase the value of
your portfolio. You must do your research
to find these gems to invest in on a long term basis. I watch Jim Cramer every night on CNBC. His recommendations are primarily for the
long term investor in individual stocks.
I agree with most things he talks about.
But that does not mean you still do not have to do your own research
first. He can point you in the right
direction at some good potential investments, but he does not manage your
portfolio. You do and thus it is your
responsibility to do the leg work and the research to see if something he has
suggested fits into your portfolio and long term goals. Your long term investing of individual stocks
should be diversified into various areas of the market. But this I mean do not hold for example all
Healthcare Stocks or all Tech Stocks or all Retail Stocks etc. Varity will protect you and keep your
portfolio balanced and safer. Also
common sense has to play into your choices.
Your strategy is for long term growth and the potential the
stock/company has to grow. Let's look at
stocks like Pepsi, Coke, McDonalds and Wal-Mart. These types of stocks have reached most of
their growth potential. They have
saturated the market Globally. And
unless we find a new planet to colonize they have nowhere else to grow or to
grow much. Thus you will not find them
in my portfolio and nor should you.
Timing is important when looking for a good deal and the
time is now. For the last three or four
days the market has had a small pull back and has closed down. Poor Black Friday results for retails helped
with this while a good Cyber Monday gave little help to the market. Thus the average retail market did poorly
while discount internet web retailers and high end retailers like Tiffany's
held strong. The rich are always going
to spend money regardless of the economy.
Almost 50% of people in America still feel we are in a poor economy
situation, thus looking for discount prices on the internet at discount
retailers. Thus why these two areas of
the retail market are holding strong.
Where you box stores have seen poor showings in the market. Did I expect this slight pull back in the
market. Yes, and I was waiting to see it
happen. Usually you will see these kinds
of pull backs in the market sometime in November or early December and it held
true once again this year. Thus making
this a good time to look at some individual stocks for your portfolio before
they take off running again.
One other thing we have seen in the market is falling
gold prices. I expect to see these to
continue to fall for awhile. Thus gold
companies are starting to look more attract.
One that I have personally been monitoring for a couple of years now is Randgold
Resources Limited (GOLD). This stock has taken a bath over the past
year or so. Why? Because it is directly related to the prices
of gold which have also been tumbling. Will
Randgold recover? Yes just as soon as
gold prices begin to rise again. I see
worse for Randgold in the future as its price continues to go down. But this is certainly a stock to put on your
watch list and monitor. When gold starts
to soar again so will this stock and that is when you need to buy and ride the
wave. When stock prices begin to decline
again, dump it and take your profits.
Hope this information is helpful to you in your long term
investing plans in your portfolio. Have
a question? Please feel free to leave
them in the comments or email me.
Gus S.
Disclaimer: Make sure to review any information found on this blog site with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions. I am providing general information and not financial advise. I am not a licensed stockbroker or financial advisor.
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